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Synopsis: Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, is joined by Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial to discuss the most pressing issues on the macro landscape. After exploring whether quantitative easing (QE) and low rates are inflationary or deflationary, Johnson and Van Metre take a deep dive into the plumbing of the Treasury market and specifically the operations of the Fed’s FOMC. Van Metre explains why he believes the Fed’s policies have actually caused banks to tighten their lending standards rather than loosen them as the Fed intended. The pair then take a look at swap lines and the Eurodollar funding market as well as the effect a credit contraction would have on the U.S. dollar. Lastly, Van Metre talks about his Real Vision journey and how the knowledge he’s gained has helped him as a financial advisor
What would Warrent Buffett do in the GameStop case?
Warren Buffett would not have been surprised to learn that the short sellers who bet on GME’s decline lost billions in the first month of 2021.
Buffett is famous for taking the long view when it comes to investing, preferring undervalued, lower-profile stocks over those that rise and fall quickly because of intense media attention and hype.
He doesn’t deny that short selling can be profitable; he just can’t justify the practice for himself, since it offers limited gains and potentially unlimited losses.
Short selling has “ruined a lot of people,” he said in 2001 at the annual meeting of his company, Berkshire Hathaway. “It’s the sort of thing that you can go broke doing.”
“It’s tempting,” he continued. “You see way more stocks that are dramatically overvalued in your career than you will see stocks that are dramatically undervalued. … So you might think it’s easier to make money on short selling. And all I can say is, it hasn’t been for me.
It's 'very painful’
One of the main problems, Buffett said, is that short sellers are at the mercy of those with the power and influence to promote and inflate stocks (kind of like the Reddit posters in the GameStop example).
"It is a very, very tough business because of the fact that you face unlimited losses and because of the fact that people that have overvalued stocks — very overvalued stocks — are frequently on some scale between promoter and crook,” he said at the 2001 meeting.
“And they also know how to use that very valuation to bootstrap value into the business.”
And the short seller can run out of money before the stock’s promoters run out of ways to keep the price on the rise, Buffett said.
“It is very painful,” he said. “In my experience, it was a whole lot easier to make money on the long side."
It's ‘just plain foolish’ Buffett has also expressed strong feelings on the question of “leverage” (“borrowed assets” for those who don’t speak finance), which is a necessary component of short selling, since the shares first need to be borrowed in order to be shorted.
In a Q&A with the University of Florida’s School of Business in 1998, Buffett weighed in on the then-recent demise of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), a well-known and once highly successful hedge fund that boasted Nobel Prize winners among its founders.
The fund had come crashing down weeks earlier, in part because it had operated with too much leverage in making risky investments on volatile foreign currencies and bonds.
‘“To make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need,” Buffett told the audience. “That is foolish. That is just plain foolish. It doesn’t make any difference what your IQ is. If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it just does not make any sense.”
What should I do instead?
Given Buffett’s public distaste for chasing quick gains, it’s understandable why he avoids short-selling.
In the same Q&A at the University of Florida, Buffett laid out his stance with a very clear metaphor:
“If you hand me a gun with a million chambers in it, and there’s one bullet in a chamber and you said, ‘Put it up to your temple. How much do you want to be paid to pull it once,’ I’m not going to pull it. You can name any sum you want, but it doesn’t do anything for me on the upside and I think the downside is fairly clear. So I’m not interested in that kind of game.”
Buffett’s strategy has long been that slow and steady wins the race. Clearly, as a billionaire investor, it’s been working well for him all these years.
And you’ve got an advantage Buffett didn’t have back when he started investing in 1942: technology.
Today's budding investors have all kinds of investing apps to choose from, all of them offering you the opportunity to grow your money gradually without the steep risks of short selling.
And you don’t even need full dollars to get your money working for you. With a micro-investing app, your debit or credit card purchases can rounded up to the nearest dollar so that the spare change can be invested for you — while you do nothing but watch your account grow.
It may sound alarmingly simple. But that’s the key. As Buffett once said, “The great moves are usually greeted by yawns.”